The Obama administration has played a terrible hand pretty well so far. The president didn't create the conundrum he now faces:
How to deal with a regime that has lost its legitimacy and may not be able to maintain control but who's also a key ally in a region where America has critical interests.
Trying to thread this needle by not pressuring Mubarak to quit while identifying itself with forces of peaceful change while hoping that some orderly transition prevails may not be possible.
Whether Mubarak stays or goes may no longer even be relevant. The question is, can the institutions of the state that have governed Egypt - the military, bureaucracy; intelligence services and the wealthy business class adjust to the change that the opposition seems to want.
The fact is we are on he cusp of transformational changes in the Arab world - Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt and perhaps elsewhere that will over the short term make it very uncomfortable for traditional American policies.
The peace process is already in the deep freeze and no Israeli government will make any decisions now when Arab states seem to be collapsing like houses of cards. Mubarak was a (repeat was) an oasis of stability in comparison with the Palestinian national movement, a kind of Noah's Ark with two of everything.
And the pillars of pro-western support in the Arab world - Egypt; Tunisia - may give way to more open politics where criticism of America will be not just tolerated but encouraged.
Even if the Obama administration manages to navigate this current crisis, it should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty and crisis. These popular revolutions could over time lead to more open and democratic societies; and that would be a very good thing.
But for the moment John Buchan's words in Greenmantle ring truer: "There's a dry wind blowing through the east, and the parched grasses await the spark."
Aaron David Miller
Former State Department official; Wilson Center scholar; Author of "Can America Have Another Great President?"
No comments:
Post a Comment